Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erasmo RamirezPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Lowe homered to center (452 feet), Arozarena scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Paredes homered to left center (387 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Jones homered to right center (376 feet), B. Doyle scored and Blackmon scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Basabe singled to left, Raley scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Raley homered to right center (428 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Fair odds
- TB -144
- COL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +118 Elo | TB 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–45 | Road vs home | 42–223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.