Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Montero doubled to left, Jones scored and Rodgers scored.5–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Robert Jr. homered to left center (447 feet).5–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 7Blackmon homered to right center (406 feet), Montero scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5Sosa singled to center, Pérez scored and Colás scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Montero tripled to right, Rodgers scored and Jones scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Benintendi singled to left, Andrus scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 2Jones singled to right, Blackmon scored and McMahon scored.1–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Díaz singled to left, McMahon scored and Rodgers scored, Jones to second.1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -108
- CHW +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.4 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +7 Elo | CHW 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–41 | Road vs home | 27–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.