Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Montero doubled to center, Jones scored, Díaz to third.1–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–13
- 7Tovar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Toglia scored, Blackmon out at second.1–13
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–13
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–12
- 6Jones singled to right, Rodgers scored.1–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–11
- 6Rodgers tripled to right, Tovar scored and McMahon scored.1–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 4McMahon homered to left center (433 feet), Blackmon scored and Tovar scored.1–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Blackmon singled to right, Profar scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 1Díaz homered to left (391 feet), Rodgers scored.1–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Jones grounded out to second, McMahon scored, Rodgers to third.1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Tovar homered to left (397 feet), Blackmon scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Andrus homered to center (439 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -107
- CHW +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +6 Elo | CHW 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–40 | Road vs home | 26–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.