Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi doubled to left, Andrus scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Robert Jr. homered to left center (422 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Suzuki homered to left center (406 feet).3–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Andrus singled to left, Grandal scored and Remillard scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Happ homered to right center (375 feet), Tauchman scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Moncada grounded into fielder's choice to second, Benintendi scored, Jiménez out at second, Robert Jr. to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Fair odds
- CHC -128
- CHW +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.0 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +70 Elo | CHC 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3022–39 | Road vs home | 32–2816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–2 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.