Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Morel homered to right center (411 feet), Bellinger scored and Swanson scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 8Madrigal homered to left (362 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Sheets homered to right center (419 feet), Vaughn scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Benintendi scored on Assad wild pitch, Robert Jr. to third on wild pitch by Assad.1–0
- 4Benintendi scored on Assad wild pitch, Robert Jr. to third on wild pitch by Assad.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Fair odds
- CHC -125
- CHW +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.0 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −2 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +51 Elo | CHC 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–39 | Road vs home | 32–2919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.