Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa homered to left (403 feet), Grandal scored and Colás scored.10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Colás doubled to center, Vaughn scored and Moncada scored, Grandal to third.7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 8Moncada doubled to right, Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored, Vaughn to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Remillard doubled to left, Sheets scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Castro singled to center, McMahon scored and Jones scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Tovar singled to left, Blackmon scored, Tovar out stretching at second.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Montero scored on error, Toglia safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Remillard, Castro to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Blackmon homered to right center (455 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Benintendi scored on throwing error by catcher Wynns, Vaughn safe at second on error.2–0
- 3Benintendi scored on throwing error by catcher Wynns, Vaughn safe at second on error.2–0
- 2Vaughn homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.5 – 5.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −13 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +2 Elo | COL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–42 | Road vs home | 28–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.