Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Osleivis BasabeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Basabe homered to left center (393 feet), Arozarena scored, Paredes scored and Siri scored.4–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–12
- 8Paredes doubled to left, Díaz scored, Arozarena to third.4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Arozarena hit sacrifice fly, Mead scored and Bethancourt scored, Arozarena to first on fielding error by left fielder Jones, Díaz to second.4–7
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 34–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 8Díaz singled to left, Basabe scored, Bethancourt to second, Mead to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Bethancourt singled to left, Siri scored, Mead to second, Basabe to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Rodgers scored on Poché wild pitch, Díaz to second on wild pitch by Poché.4–3
- 6Rodgers scored on Poché wild pitch, Díaz to second on wild pitch by Poché.4–3
- 6Díaz singled to right, McMahon scored, Rodgers to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Díaz singled to left, Mead scored, Raley to second.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Siri singled to right, Arozarena scored, Paredes to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Toglia homered to right center (384 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Profar hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Fair odds
- TB -139
- COL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −6 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +94 Elo | TB 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–43 | Road vs home | 40–223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.