Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10B. Lowe singled to right, Basabe scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Díaz singled to center, J. Lowe scored and Siri scored, Pinto to third.5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Paredes homered to left (358 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6B. Doyle singled to left, Díaz scored, Montero to second, Profar thrown out at home.5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Montero hit by pitch, McMahon scored, Profar to second, Díaz to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Díaz singled to left, Blackmon scored and Tovar scored, McMahon to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Díaz singled to center, Bethancourt scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Díaz homered to left (390 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Arozarena homered to left (368 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Fair odds
- TB -142
- COL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +111 Elo | TB 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–44 | Road vs home | 41–223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.