New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting2-4
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3J. Lowe doubled to right, Arozarena scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Aranda hit sacrifice fly to center, Raley scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2H. Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored, Raley to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -128
- NYY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +74 Elo | TB 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 43–233rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 5–6 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.