Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (381 feet), Díaz scored and Arozarena scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7J. Lowe homered to right center (391 feet).8–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 37–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Arozarena homered to left center (394 feet), H. Ramírez scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7H. Ramírez singled to left, Basabe scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Siri doubled to left, Bruján scored and Paredes scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Paredes singled to left, B. Lowe scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (412 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +35 Elo | TB 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 3035–29 | Road vs home | 38–2910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.