Seattle Mariners at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alonso homered to center (397 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5McNeil homered to right (374 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Ford homered to right center (408 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Canzone homered to right center (381 feet), Suárez scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Alonso homered to left (385 feet), McNeil scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Alvarez singled to left, Mauricio scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Alonso singled to center, Lindor scored, Alonso to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Fair odds
- SEA -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +49 Elo | SEA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3038–29 | Road vs home | 34–3319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.