Texas Rangers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vientos homered to center (392 feet).2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 9Duran singled to left, Garver scored, Jankowski to third.2–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 7Garver homered to center (423 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -102
- NYM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 15th of 3032–33 | Road vs home | 32–3118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–0 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.