Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Seager hit sacrifice fly to center, Grossman scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Semien hit by pitch, Duran scored, Taveras to second, Grossman to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Taveras walked, Martinez scored, Grossman to second, Duran to third.4–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 44–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 9Grossman walked, García scored, Duran to second, Martinez to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 43–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Polanco homered to right center (385 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6García homered to center (424 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Kepler doubled to center, Julien scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Garver homered to left center (417 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 46%
- Fair odds
- MIN -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −12 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 38–267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.