Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Michael A. TaylorBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jeffers homered to left center (427 feet), Correa scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Correa doubled to center, Wallner scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Lewis homered to left (394 feet).5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Taylor homered to center (422 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Taveras homered to left (353 feet).5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Taylor homered to left (369 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Jankowski singled to center, García scored and Lowe scored, Garver to second.4–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Seager homered to right (384 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Farmer homered to left center (435 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Semien homered to left center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +7 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +3 Elo | TEX 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 36–267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.