Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano singled to left, Wallner scored, Jeffers to second.2–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–12
- 8Kepler homered to right center (396 feet).2–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 8Lowe singled to center, Seager scored.2–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 7Julien homered to center (435 feet), Jeffers scored and Solano scored.1–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 7Solano singled to center, Wallner scored, Jeffers to second.1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Jeffers reached on infield single to second, Lewis scored, Wallner to second.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Correa homered to left (414 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 2Garver homered to left center (389 feet).1–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Jeffers singled to right, Wallner scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 37–267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.