Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel singled to center, Renfroe scored, Grichuk to third.3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Lindor homered to left (390 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Moustakas singled to center, Ohtani scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Drury hit sacrifice fly to right, Schanuel scored, Ohtani to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Fair odds
- NYM -115
- LAA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +18 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 1.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +70 Elo | NYM 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–34 | Road vs home | 31–2816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.