Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase SilsethPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mets- Daniel VogelbachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Phil BickfordPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vogelbach homered to left center (392 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Stewart doubled to left, McNeil scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Lindor scored on throwing error by first baseman Cabbage, McNeil stole third.5–1
- 4Lindor scored on throwing error by first baseman Cabbage, McNeil stole third.5–1
- 2Drury doubled to left, Ohtani scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Ohtani tripled to right, Rengifo scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Rengifo singled to center, Cabbage scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Moniak homered to right center (405 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Drury singled to left, Ohtani scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- LAA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −10 | LAA: Chase Silseth: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +4 Elo | LAA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 31–2918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.