Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting1-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 13Taylor walked, Correa scored, Wallner to second, Gallo to third.6–7
- 13Pitch 4 : Ball 46–7
- 13Pitch 3 : Ball 36–6
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 12Polanco grounded into fielder's choice to third, Taylor scored, Solano out at third.6–6
- 12Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 12Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 12Seager hit sacrifice fly to left, Taveras scored.6–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Solano singled to center, Taylor scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Lewis homered to center (423 feet), Solano scored, Polanco scored and Correa scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Heim homered to right (372 feet), Lowe scored, Garver scored and Grossman scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Martinez homered to right (404 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +15 Elo | TEX 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 38–277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.