Texas Rangers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe singled to right, Duran scored and J. Smith scored, Seager to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Grossman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Seager scored, García out at second, Lowe to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6García doubled to right, Semien scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Stewart homered to center (394 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Nimmo homered to right (389 feet), Narváez scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Fair odds
- TEX -102
- NYM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +36 Elo | TEX 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 32–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.