Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ortega singled to right, Locastro scored, Vientos to second, Stewart to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Alonso doubled to left, Lindor scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 8Rengifo homered to right center (417 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Wallach grounded out to first, Grichuk scored, Moniak to second, Renfroe to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Alvarez reached on infield single to second, McNeil scored, Vogelbach to second.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -108
- LAA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +13 Elo | NYM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 31–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–0 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.