Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-3
- Luke WeaverPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 4Marlowe walked, Hernández scored, Moore to second, Raleigh to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 43–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Langeliers homered to center (439 feet), J. Diaz scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Brown homered to right (351 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 69%
- Fair odds
- SEA -157
- OAK +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 5.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +142 Elo | SEA 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–49 | Road vs home | 38–289th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–8 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.