Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Trayce ThompsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Anderson scored on throwing error by shortstop Crawford.4–5
- 10Anderson scored on throwing error by shortstop Crawford.4–5
- 9Benintendi singled to right, Colás scored, Benintendi to second.4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Suárez singled to center, Crawford scored and Raleigh scored, Rodríguez to second.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 9Rodríguez hit by pitch, Rojas scored, Crawford to second, Raleigh to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 7Rojas reached on bunt single to pitcher, Caballero scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 6Thompson homered to left center (398 feet), Colás scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Anderson singled to center, Pérez scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Fair odds
- SEA -116
- CHW +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −19 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +96 Elo | SEA 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–27 | Road vs home | 25–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 4–1 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.