Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi homered to right center (388 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 6Andrus grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Vaughn scored, Grandal out at second.6–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to right, Crawford scored, Suárez to third.6–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6France reached on infield single to third, Rojas scored, Suárez to second, Crawford to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Rojas homered to right center (387 feet), Ford scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Crawford singled to left, Canzone scored, Ford to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Ford singled to right, Hernández scored, Canzone to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Vaughn singled to left, Robert Jr. scored, Jiménez to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +11 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3036–27 | Road vs home | 25–3428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 3–1 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.