Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón homered to left center (393 feet).10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 9Haggerty homered to left (391 feet).10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 9Moore homered to left center (358 feet).9–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 18–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 8Hernández doubled to center, Haggerty scored and Rodríguez scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 5Moore homered to right center (357 feet), France scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Diaz homered to left center (386 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Bregman homered to left (334 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Raleigh singled to left, Hernández scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Hernández doubled to center, France scored on fielding error by center fielder Meyers.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Marlowe tripled to center, Caballero scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Suárez singled to center, Rodríguez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −7 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +2 Elo | HOU 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–27 | Road vs home | 33–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 6–2 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.