Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Blanco reached on bunt single to first, S. Taylor scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Perez hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored, S. Taylor to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Rodríguez singled to left, Haggerty scored, Rojas to second.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Rojas singled to center, Hernández scored, Haggerty to third.5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Suárez singled to left, Rodríguez scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 8Rodríguez doubled to left, Ford scored, Rojas scored and Moore scored.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 6Garcia walked, Duffy scored, Isbel to second, Waters to third.0–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 40–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Witt Jr. homered to right center (303 feet).0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Fair odds
- SEA -116
- KC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +8 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +75 Elo | SEA 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 22–3729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.