Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Velázquez homered to left (386 feet).6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Rodríguez singled to right, Haggerty scored, Caballero thrown out at third.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Moore scored, France to second, Suárez to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Velázquez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Melendez scored, Waters out at second, Beaty to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Melendez doubled to center, Perez scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 14–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 2Isbel hit sacrifice fly to left, Waters scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 2Rodríguez singled to right, Caballero scored, Rojas to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Massey hit sacrifice fly to right, Garcia scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Raleigh homered to right (374 feet), France scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1France singled to left, Rodríguez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- KC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.1 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: James McArthur (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +69 Elo | SEA 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3030–27 | Road vs home | 23–3829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–1 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.