Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting5-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10France singled to center, Caballero scored and Marlowe scored, Rodríguez to second.10–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–8
- 9Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Blanco thrown out at third.8–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 18–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 9Massey singled to center, S. Taylor scored and Velázquez scored, Witt Jr. to second.8–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Hernández doubled to center, Suárez scored.8–5
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 37–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 27–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 17–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left center (435 feet), Beaty scored, Isbel scored and Garcia scored.7–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Garcia singled to left, Melendez scored, Isbel to second, Beaty to third.7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Rojas homered to right (380 feet), Caballero scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Caballero doubled to left, Canzone scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Hernández homered to right center (409 feet), Raleigh scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- KC +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −10 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +79 Elo | SEA 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 23–3729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.