Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting5-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Angel ZerpaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to right (394 feet).6–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Rodríguez homered to left (438 feet), Marlowe scored and Canzone scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Fermin sacrificed into double play, center to shortstop to third, Velázquez scored, Melendez thrown out at third.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Melendez doubled to left, Massey scored, Velázquez to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Massey singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Rodríguez doubled to left, Marlowe scored, Canzone thrown out at home, Rodríguez to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Velázquez homered to center (407 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Rodríguez singled to center, Caballero scored, Marlowe to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Fair odds
- SEA -117
- KC +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.1 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Angel Zerpa (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +78 Elo | SEA 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 23–3929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.