Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting2-5
- Touki ToussaintPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Colás scored on error, Sosa safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Rojas, Sosa safe at second on error.14–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play14–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 314–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul14–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 214–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–1
- 9Caballero singled to left, Rojas scored.14–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–1
- 8Canzone homered to right center (398 feet).13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–1
- 8Raleigh homered to right (413 feet), Crawford scored and France scored.12–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 6Hernández singled to right, Rojas scored and Suárez scored, France to third.9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Hernández homered to left center (402 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Raleigh homered to right (367 feet).6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 1Jiménez doubled to left, Andrus scored.5–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Rojas singled to right, Marlowe scored, Ford to second, Ford safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Colás.5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Raleigh to home on throwing error by catcher Grandal, Marlowe stole second.4–0
- 1Raleigh scored on throwing error by catcher Grandal, Marlowe stole second.4–0
- 1Raleigh scored on throwing error by catcher Grandal, Marlowe stole second.4–0
- 1Raleigh to home on throwing error by catcher Grandal, Marlowe stole second.4–0
- 1Raleigh doubled to right, France scored and Suárez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- CHW +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +59 Elo | SEA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3035–27 | Road vs home | 25–3327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.