Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bregman tripled to center, Peña scored.7–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 5Moore singled to right, Ford scored, Canzone to second.7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 3Dubón doubled to left, Alvarez scored and Diaz scored.6–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 3Diaz doubled to right, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.6–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3Alvarez singled to right, Altuve scored and Peña scored, Bregman to second.6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3O'Keefe doubled to left, Canzone scored and Rojas scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Suárez homered to left center (426 feet), Rojas scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Canzone doubled to right, Hernández scored, Ford to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3034–27 | Road vs home | 33–2814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 7–2 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.