Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jonah BrideBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Touki ToussaintPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bride singled to center, Rooker scored, C. Pérez to second.2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8C. Pérez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ruiz scored, Rooker to second, Rooker safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Moncada.1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Benintendi homered to left center (366 feet).0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Moncada homered to left (409 feet), Anderson scored and Jiménez scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Sosa homered to left center (402 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Jiménez singled to center, Robert Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 58%
- Fair odds
- CHW -123
- OAK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.8 – 5.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −13 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Touki Toussaint: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +53 Elo | CHW 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–46 | Road vs home | 26–3728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 4–1 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.