Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick AllenBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Zach NealPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Noda homered to right (378 feet).12–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 7Allen homered to left (360 feet).11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 6Langeliers grounded into double play, third to second, Brown scored, Kemp out at second, Rooker out at third.10–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 5Jiménez homered to left center (434 feet).9–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 5Noda grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bride scored on throwing error by shortstop Anderson, Allen out at second, Noda to second.9–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Allen singled to left, Kemp scored and Langeliers scored, Bride to second.8–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Allen singled to right, Bride scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 3Moncada doubled to right, Benintendi scored, Robert Jr. to third.5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 2Sosa homered to right (356 feet), Colás scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Gelof doubled to left, Noda scored on error, Gelof safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Benintendi.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Noda singled to center, Butler scored and Allen scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Allen singled to left, Kemp scored on error, Allen safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Benintendi, Butler safe at third on error.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Butler singled to center, Rooker scored, Kemp to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 57%
- Fair odds
- CHW -123
- OAK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.5 – 5.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | OAK: Zach Neal (no track record yet) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +50 Elo | CHW 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3017–46 | Road vs home | 26–3628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 3–1 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.