Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kemp homered to right (407 feet).8–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Gelof homered to left (380 feet), Noda scored.7–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 6Langeliers homered to left center (407 feet).5–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6Rooker homered to center (418 feet).4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Robert Jr. homered to left center (444 feet), Benintendi scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Benintendi singled to center, Lee scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Andrus homered to left center (396 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Langeliers homered to left (357 feet), Brown scored and Kemp scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Benintendi homered to right (369 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 59%
- Fair odds
- CHW -126
- OAK +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.5 – 5.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −8 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +65 Elo | CHW 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–46 | Road vs home | 26–3528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–1 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.