Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to left center (380 feet), Noda scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Massey singled to right, Isbel scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Garcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Beaty scored, Isbel to second.3–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Langeliers homered to left center (456 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Witt Jr. homered to center (426 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Brown singled to center, Noda scored, Rooker to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Gelof homered to center (428 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2J. Diaz homered to left center (383 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Fermin hit sacrifice fly to right, Melendez scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 51%
- Fair odds
- OAK -106
- KC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +16 | KC: Tucker Davidson (no track record yet) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +4 Elo | OAK 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–46 | Road vs home | 18–4430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–2 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.