Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Witt Jr. homered to center (394 feet), Duffy scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Hoerner singled to center, Wisdom scored, Morel to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Morel grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suzuki scored, Wisdom safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Duffy, Candelario out at third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Candelario singled to left, Gomes scored, Suzuki to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Isbel singled to center, Waters scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Fair odds
- CHC -137
- KC +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.0 – 5.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +83 Elo | CHC 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–44 | Road vs home | 33–2916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.