Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching8.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Waters grounded out to second, Isbel scored, Garcia to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Garcia singled to center, Velázquez scored, Isbel to third.2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Amaya homered to left (395 feet).1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Suzuki homered to left (395 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Happ tripled to center, Hoerner scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Massey singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 65%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 5.0 – 5.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −2 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +109 Elo | CHC 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–45 | Road vs home | 34–3015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.