Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-5, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Isbel doubled to right, Perez scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Witt Jr. singled to right, Waters scored, Blanco to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Fermin grounded out to third, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 4Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Gomes scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 4Happ singled to right, Suzuki scored, Hoerner to second, Gomes to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Bellinger homered to left center (390 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Candelario scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Duffy grounded out to second, Perez scored, Fermin to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Bellinger homered to left center, Hoerner scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Fair odds
- CHC -137
- KC +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.9 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +91 Elo | CHC 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–44 | Road vs home | 33–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–0 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.