Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Athletics- Jonah BrideBatting1-3
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left center (389 feet).4–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Garcia hit sacrifice fly to right, Waters scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Waters tripled to center, Beaty scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Blanco homered to left (414 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 49%
- Fair odds
- OAK -106
- KC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +3 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · OAK: Adrian Martinez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | KC +10 Elo | KC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–48 | Road vs home | 20–4430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–4 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.