Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez doubled to center, Crawford scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 7Isbel homered to right (396 feet), Beaty scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Rojas singled to center, Canzone scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Hernández scored on Cox wild pitch, Canzone to second on wild pitch by Cox.3–5
- 5Hernández scored on Cox wild pitch, Canzone to second on wild pitch by Cox.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Suárez singled to left, Canzone scored and Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Isbel singled to left, Velázquez scored, Waters thrown out at home.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Melendez scored on pickoff error by pitcher Miller.2–2
- 2Melendez scored on pickoff error by pitcher Miller.2–2
- 2Velázquez singled to right, Perez scored, Melendez to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Raleigh singled to left, Rodríguez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 66%
- Fair odds
- SEA -148
- KC +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 5.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +114 Elo | SEA 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–48 | Road vs home | 34–2811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–3 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.