Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Velázquez homered to right center (399 feet), Massey scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Rodríguez homered to left center (401 feet), Rojas scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Hernández homered to center (433 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 70%
- Fair odds
- SEA -154
- KC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 5.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +5 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +149 Elo | SEA 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–50 | Road vs home | 36–2810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–5 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.