Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Drew WatersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hernández homered to left center (446 feet).2–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–14
- 8Garcia doubled to right, S. Taylor scored.2–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–14
- 7Marlowe homered to center (412 feet), Ford scored.1–14
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–14
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 6Raleigh homered to left (368 feet).1–12
- 6Pitch 11 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 31–11
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 21–11
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 11–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–11
- 5Rodríguez homered to left center (410 feet), Crawford scored.1–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–11
- 5Crawford singled to right, Rojas scored.1–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 5Waters homered to right (403 feet).1–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Crawford scored, Raleigh out at second, Rodríguez to third.0–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 70%
- Fair odds
- SEA -152
- KC +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 5.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +7 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +143 Elo | SEA 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–49 | Road vs home | 35–2810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–4 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.