Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hernández singled to right, Rodríguez scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Rodríguez homered to center (420 feet), Crawford scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Moore grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Suárez scored, France out at second, Hernández to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Hernández singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Suárez to second.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Rodríguez doubled to center, Crawford scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Crawford homered to center (394 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 72%
- Fair odds
- SEA -159
- OAK +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.3 – 5.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −9 | OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +161 Elo | SEA 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.02nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–48 | Road vs home | 37–289th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–7 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.