Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moncada doubled to left, Benintendi scored and Anderson scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Sheets singled to left, Moncada scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Gelof hit sacrifice fly to left, Ruiz scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Sheets walked, Vaughn scored on Blackburn wild pitch, Moncada to second, Moncada safe at third on error by pitcher Blackburn.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 40–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Benintendi scored on error, Vaughn safe at first on throwing error by third baseman J. Diaz.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Vaughn singled to left, Anderson scored, Vaughn to second, Jiménez thrown out at third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 57%
- Fair odds
- CHW -123
- OAK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.8 – 5.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +11 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +50 Elo | CHW 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3018–47 | Road vs home | 27–3728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 4–2 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.