Seattle Mariners at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mets- DJ StewartBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford homered to right (353 feet).8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 8McNeil tripled to right, Lindor scored.7–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Lindor homered to left (367 feet), Narváez scored.7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 6Vientos homered to center (438 feet).7–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 37–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Haggerty scored on error, Rodríguez safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Vientos.7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Canzone homered to right (400 feet), Ford scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 5Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Crawford scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Stewart homered to center (422 feet), Alonso scored and Vogelbach scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Hernández singled to right, Rodríguez scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Rodríguez tripled to center, Crawford scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Hernández homered to center (405 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Fair odds
- SEA -105
- NYM +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +43 Elo | SEA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–29 | Road vs home | 34–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.