Seattle Mariners at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vogelbach singled to left, Lindor scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Nimmo homered to right center (416 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Crawford homered to center (413 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +23 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 1.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3037–28 | Road vs home | 33–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.