Texas Rangers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mets- DJ StewartBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Denyi ReyesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stewart hit by pitch, McNeil scored, Alvarez to second, Alonso to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Stewart homered to right (362 feet), Alonso scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Heim singled to center, Lowe scored and García scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 8García hit by pitch, Semien scored, Lowe to second, Seager to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6García walked, Taveras scored, Lowe to second, Seager to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 42–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Seager homered to center (420 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Nimmo doubled to center, Vientos scored, Ortega to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Fair odds
- TEX -107
- NYM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −48 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Denyi Reyes: team allows 2.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +64 Elo | TEX 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 32–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 2–0 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.