Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach NealPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crawford singled to left, Caballero scored and Canzone scored, Moore to second.4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Ruiz doubled to left, Allen scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Hernández homered to left (374 feet), Suárez scored and Raleigh scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Noda doubled to center, Ruiz scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Butler homered to right center (431 feet), J. Diaz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 68%
- Fair odds
- SEA -155
- OAK +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 5.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | OAK: Zach Neal: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +133 Elo | SEA 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3019–49 | Road vs home | 38–299th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–8 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.