New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nimmo homered to center (430 feet).11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Vargas reached on infield single to shortstop, Meneses scored, Millas to third.10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–4
- 8Adams hit sacrifice fly to right, Young scored on error, Millas safe at second on fielding error by catcher Alvarez, Meneses to third.10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Millas walked, Alu scored, Meneses to second, Young to third.10–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 410–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 310–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging10–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 8Young singled to center, Call scored, Alu to second.10–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 8Mauricio singled to right, Alvarez scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 5Alonso homered to left (420 feet).9–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Nimmo homered to right (388 feet).8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 3Baty singled to left, Vientos scored and Alvarez scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Lindor homered to center (407 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 34–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Fair odds
- WSH -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.2 – 5.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −18 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +24 Elo | NYM 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–41 | Road vs home | 28–4027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 6–5 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.