Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, De La Cruz out stretching at second.6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 9Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arraez scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Burger out at second.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Sánchez scored on error, Wendle safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Vargas, Wendle safe at second on error, Berti safe at third on error.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Thomas singled to center, Young scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Young singled to center, Smith scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Smith doubled to left, Vargas scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 1Thomas homered to left (431 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 1Berti walked, Chisholm Jr. scored, Sánchez to second, De La Cruz to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 43–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Sánchez walked, Bell scored, De La Cruz to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 42–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.9 – 5.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +12 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–36 | Road vs home | 28–3927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 10–2 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.