Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young singled to center, Smith scored.11–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 9Smith doubled to left, Alu scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–3
- 7Arraez singled to left, Sánchez scored, Stallings to second.11–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–3
- 7Hampson hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.10–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 6Thomas homered to left (363 feet).9–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 5Smith homered to center (413 feet).9–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 29–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 4De La Cruz homered to left center (424 feet), Arraez scored and Burger scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Sánchez homered to left center (395 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and De La Cruz scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Burger homered to left center (412 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Adams doubled to right, Kieboom scored, Alu to third.2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- MIA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 28–3826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 9–2 WSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.